Global Markets Weekly Update: A Firmer Policy Rate Meets Resilient Growth
The Fed raised rates while describing solid activity—an unusually sharp test of duration, liquidity, and risk assumptions.
The verified policy change
On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. The statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated.
The September projections put median 2026 real-GDP growth at 2.3%. Forecasts remain conditional, not promises; the dispersion and historical error bands matter as much as the median.
Import-price pressure adds a second input
BLS reported August import prices up 0.7% and export prices up 0.6%. That does not mechanically determine policy, but it reinforces the need to separate observed inflation inputs from market narratives about the future path of rates.
Primary sources
Federal Reserve FOMC statement
Federal Reserve projections
BLS import and export price releases
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